Big, Long-Term Plans are Risky

In the fast-moving world of technology, big plans with extended development schedules are exceptionally risky. Time is the deadly enemy of the technology business.

Today's great idea is tomorrow's obsolete concept.

The Dangers of Long Development Cycles:

• Increased Chance of Being Beaten: The longer it takes to get a product to market, the greater the likelihood that a competitor will get there first.
• "Unkunks": Big projects are afflicted with more "unknown unknowns," leading to massive and unpredictable schedule and cost overruns.
• Losing Touch with the Market: The riskiest plans are those with no interim product output. A company that withdraws into itself for a five-year development cycle can lose touch with the market's evolution.
• The Market Can Evaporate: By the time the breakthrough product is finally delivered, the market may have changed so much that the original problem it was designed to solve is no longer relevant.

Big, monolithic, multi-year plans are a huge gamble. A more agile approach with interim deliverables and constant market feedback is often a safer and more effective path.