Proportionality Bias Makes Complex Conspiracies Seem Plausible

Proportionality bias is a cognitive shortcut that leads us to assume that large, significant events must have equally large and significant causes. We instinctively feel that major outcomes, like a presidential assassination or a global pandemic, are unlikely to be the result of random chance, a lone actor, or a simple accident.

This bias makes complex conspiracy theories feel more psychologically satisfying and plausible than simple, mundane explanations. The idea that a massive event was caused by an equally massive, secret plot feels more "proportional" than the often-chaotic reality.

This helps explain why conspiracy theories are often so elaborate, violating the principle of Occam's Razor. The complexity is not a bug, but a feature. It provides a narrative that is psychologically proportionate to the scale of the event it seeks to explain.

For example:

• The death of a princess feels more "right" if it's a complex assassination plot rather than a simple car crash.
• A global pandemic feels more "proportioned" if it's the result of a deliberate plot by a secret cabal rather than a random viral mutation.

This bias is a powerful cognitive force that draws people towards complex, intentional explanations for major world events, making them a key ingredient in the The Funnel of Misbelief.

Tags: #psychology #cognition #bias #proportionality-bias #conspiracy-theories #misbelief