Data Beats Opinions

"Data Beats Opinions" is a fundamental principle for making good decisions about new product ideas. It means that you should base your decisions on objective data, not on subjective opinions, beliefs, or assumptions.

Opinions, even from experts, are unreliable predictors of market success. They are subject to biases and cognitive errors, as described in The Four Trolls of Thoughtland.

To make good decisions, you need to collect data that is:

• Fresh: The data should be recent, as market conditions and user preferences can change quickly.
• Relevant: The data should be directly applicable to your specific product and target market.
• Trustworthy: You should know where the data comes from and how it was collected.
• Statistically significant: The data should be based on a large enough sample size to be reliable.

The best way to get this kind of data is to collect it yourself, through experiments that you design and run. This is known as Your Own DAta (YODA).