False Positives

A false positive occurs when Thoughtland-based market research indicates that an idea is The Right It, but it turns out to be The Wrong It. It's a situation where you believe there's a market for your product, but in reality, there isn't.

False positives are a common problem with traditional market research methods like focus groups and surveys. These methods are susceptible to The Four Trolls of Thoughtland, which can lead to misleadingly positive results.

A classic example of a false positive is Webvan, an online grocery delivery service that raised hundreds of millions of dollars based on enthusiastic market research, but failed spectacularly when it launched. People said they would use the service, but their actions proved otherwise.

To avoid false positives, it's crucial to test your ideas in the real world and collect data with skin in the game. Pretotyping is a powerful way to do this. By getting people to commit something of value (money, time, reputation), you can get a much more accurate signal of their true intentions.