The Prediction Problem

The Prediction Problem is one of The Four Trolls of Thoughtland. It refers to the fact that people are notoriously bad at predicting their own future behavior.

When you ask people if they would use a new product, they are essentially making a prediction about their future selves. This prediction is often inaccurate for a number of reasons:

• Lack of context: They don't have the full context of how the product would fit into their lives.
• Optimism bias: They may overestimate their willingness to adopt new habits or try new things.
• Social desirability bias: They may give you the answer they think you want to hear.

For example, someone might say they would love to use a new fitness app every day, but when the app is actually available, they may find they don't have the time or motivation.

This is why it's so important to test what people do, not what they say they will do. Pretotyping is a powerful way to do this. By creating a realistic simulation of the product experience, you can observe people's actual behavior and get much more accurate data.