The Risk vs Certainty Framework for Founder Focus

As a SaaS company grows, the founder's primary role is to transition from doing all the work to focusing only on the highest-leverage activities. The Risk vs. Certainty Framework helps guide this transition by categorizing tasks based on their level of ambiguity.

Certainties

• Definition: Tasks that need to get done where the process and outcome are known and predictable.
• Examples:
  • Writing code for a well-defined feature.
  • Sending a weekly email newsletter.
  • Filing taxes.
  • Answering routine support tickets.
• Who should do them: These tasks require execution, not high-level problem-solving. They should be delegated to task-level or project-level thinkers on your team as soon as you can afford to.

Risks

• Definition: Ambiguous, high-stakes problems where the solution is unknown and requires experimentation, iteration, and strategic thinking.
• Examples:
  • "We need more customers, but we don't know which marketing channels will work."
  • "Our Product-market fit feels weak, but we don't know how to fix it."
  • "Should we pivot to a new market?"
• Who should do them: These are the problems that only a founder can solve. They require owner-level thinking and a deep understanding of the business.

As the company scales, the founder's job is to systematically delegate the certainties to their team. This frees up the founder's time and mental energy to focus exclusively on tackling the major risks, as these are the activities that will ultimately move the business forward and drive growth.

Tags: #SaaS #founder #mindset #focus #strategy #delegation #risk-management